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Tariffs can temporarily raise revenue, but long-term studies show consistent negative impacts on prices, jobs and global trade flows.

圖片:關(guān)稅可以暫時(shí)增加收入,但長期來看,對價(jià)格、就業(yè)和全球貿(mào)易流動(dòng)的負(fù)面影響始終存在.

Multiple studies of the long-term effects of tariffs in the 20th and into the 21st centuries indicate that, with only a few exceptions, tariffs do more harm than good. Though they may provide short-term relief and often give the public a psychological “high,” tariffs typically act as painkillers – and like painkillers, they just give temporary relief.

對20世紀(jì)和21世紀(jì)關(guān)稅長期影響的多項(xiàng)研究表明,除了少數(shù)例外,關(guān)稅弊大于利.關(guān)稅可能會(huì)提供短期經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,緩解短期經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力,在公眾看來,無疑是一種心理上的“強(qiáng)心針”,但關(guān)稅實(shí)際上只是止痛藥,效果不長,效過問題仍在.

Tariffs only enrich the General Fund of the government that levies them — consumers are typically not given a portion of the tariff to help offset higher prices. And prices will be higher. Example: If a country hits China with a 10% tariff on coffee makers, its government will collect 10% on all Chinese coffee makers sold to consumers in that country. But, before you can say “consumer savings,” the Chinese manufacturers will raise the price of coffee makers that it exports, and the retailers in the country that is imposing the tariff will raise the price of coffee makers by 10%, so it is the consumer who actually pays the cost of the tariff, not the Chinese manufacturers. AND increasing consumer prices automatically causes inflation that cannot easily be checked by central bank fund controls.

關(guān)稅能充實(shí)征收關(guān)稅的政府的普通基金,但具體消費(fèi)者并不會(huì)受益,這筆錢不會(huì)給消費(fèi)者來抵消上漲的物價(jià).舉例來說,如果一個(gè)國家對來自中國的咖啡機(jī)征收10%的關(guān)稅,既消費(fèi)者購買進(jìn)入該國的中國咖啡機(jī),費(fèi)用將上漲10%.看起來似乎是政府增加收入,但別以為消費(fèi)者能省錢,在此之前,為了應(yīng)對該加稅政策,中國制造商將提高其出口咖啡機(jī)的價(jià)格,而征收關(guān)稅的國家的零售商將把咖啡機(jī)的價(jià)格提高10%,實(shí)際為該關(guān)稅成本買單的是消費(fèi)者,而不是中國制造商.而且不斷上漲的消費(fèi)價(jià)格會(huì)自動(dòng)導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹,而中央銀行的資金控制很難控制通貨膨脹.

Thus, the current preoccupation of the U.S. Government with the imposition of tariffs presents the global community with a puzzling geopolitical reality that admits of no certain conclusions.

While there are many differing opinions on the value of tariffs, history clearly shows that, while short-term tariffs may be used to bring about strategic changes in relationships among nations, long-term tariffs are always damaging to the nation that imposes them. In the U.S., for example:

› Tariffs reduce the demand for foreign goods, which has historically led to the strengthening of the dollar, resulting in less global demand for American goods.
› The 2002 tariff increases on selected steel products backfired – U.S. Senator Lamar Alexander (R-Tennessee) observed that since “there were 10 times as many people in steel-using industries as there were in steel-producing industries… [steel-using industries] lost more jobs than exist in the steel industry.”
› A group of supply chain and operations management experts from Georgia State University, Colorado State University, Arizona State University, and Kuwait University found that the tariffs enacted in 2018 had a ripple effect of unintended consequences that negatively affected global supply chains. The group concluded that these tariffs had “an overall negative impact” on firm value that led to a decrease in the value of domestic producers within the protected industries.
› The 2018 U.S. tariffs increased costs by EUR 43.4 billion/year — a burden shouldered principally by U.S. companies and consumers. (NB: Per the Federal Reserve, while 1,000 jobs were added to the steel industry, 75,000 jobs were lost among industries using steel.)
› Tariffs of the permanent, rather than tactical/semi-strategic, type run afoul of the “Law of Unintended Consequences.”

美國政府目前的加征關(guān)稅舉措,給國際社會(huì)帶來一個(gè)令人困惑的地緣政治現(xiàn)實(shí),這個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)無法得出確定的結(jié)論。

›雖然對關(guān)稅的價(jià)值有很多不同的看法,但歷史清楚地表明,雖然短期關(guān)稅可能被用來給國家間的關(guān)系帶來戰(zhàn)略變化,但長期關(guān)稅總是對征收關(guān)稅的國家造成損害.

›例如,歷史上來看,在美國,關(guān)稅減少消費(fèi)者對外國商品的需求,導(dǎo)致美元走強(qiáng),導(dǎo)致全球?qū)γ绹�商品的需求減少.2002年對特定鋼鐵產(chǎn)品的加稅效果適得其反——美國參議員拉馬爾·亞歷山大（R-Tennessee）觀察到,由于“鋼鐵消費(fèi)行業(yè)的人數(shù)是鋼鐵生產(chǎn)行業(yè)的10倍……[鋼鐵消費(fèi)行業(yè)]失去的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)比鋼鐵生產(chǎn)行業(yè)增加的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)多。”

›來自佐治亞州立大學(xué)、科羅拉多州立大學(xué)、亞利桑那州立大學(xué)和科威特大學(xué)的一組供應(yīng)鏈和運(yùn)營管理專家發(fā)現(xiàn),2018年頒布的關(guān)稅產(chǎn)生了意想不到的連鎖反應(yīng),對全球供應(yīng)鏈產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響.該組織的結(jié)論是,這些關(guān)稅對企業(yè)價(jià)值產(chǎn)生了“總體負(fù)面影響”,導(dǎo)致受保護(hù)行業(yè)內(nèi)國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)商的價(jià)值下降.

› 2018年美國關(guān)稅使成本每年增加434億歐元,這一成本主要由美國公司和消費(fèi)者承擔(dān)（注:根據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的數(shù)據(jù),雖然鋼鐵行業(yè)增加了1,000個(gè)工作崗位,但鋼鐵消費(fèi)行業(yè)卻減少了75,000個(gè)工作崗位.）

›永久性關(guān)稅,而非戰(zhàn)術(shù)/半戰(zhàn)略性關(guān)稅,違反了“意外后果定律”. (意外后果定律：一種社會(huì)學(xué)原理，指的是行動(dòng)或決策可能產(chǎn)生預(yù)料之外的后果，這些后果可能是有益的，也可能是有害的)

Supply managers have been warned for years that it is difficult to manage supply chain risk when buying products from (1) manufacturers a world away and (2) potential adversaries, says Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Supply managers should be prepared for this,” he says. “In actuality, we likely are not.” No matter which side of the political aisle one feels most comfortable occupying, tariffs always hurt the country imposing them.